Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for April 4-8 – Finance – Kommersant

For the third week in a row, the Russian ruble ends with a rapid strengthening of its positions against the world’s leading currencies. According to the results of trading on Friday, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Stock Exchange amounted to 83.95 rubles / $, which is 12 rubles. below the previous week’s closing values. The strong position of the Russian currency is facilitated by the sale by exporters of most of the foreign exchange earnings and Russia’s plans to convert the sale of Russian gas from dollars and euros to rubles.

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Banks Dollar exchange rate forecast (rubles / $)
MTS Bank 70.00-83.00
PSB 75.00-80.00
Zenit Bank 85.00
BCS World of Investment 80.00-92.00
Consensus forecast * 81.25

* Consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts


Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The confidence of the ruble is formed against the background of the stabilization measures of the Central Bank

Our forecast for the ruble to the dollar for next week is 80-92 rubles. The confidence of the ruble is formed against the background of the stabilization measures of the Central Bank, positive signals from the talks on the de-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the recovery of ruble government bonds on the market. Oil prices are set at $ 105 per barrel, and potential moderate pressure on them in the near future may have success in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, as well as restrictions due to new outbreaks of coronavirus.

Vladimir Evstifeev

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

Strengthening the ruble below 80 rubles. coupled with the dollar may lead to the gradual withdrawal of anti-crisis measures

The ruble strengthened against the dollar by more than 20% for the week, both in the domestic foreign exchange market and in the global interbank market. The key drivers are Russia’s intention to convert gas payments from the EU into rubles, as well as progress during the Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul, which has somewhat reduced the degree of foreign policy uncertainty. Strengthening the ruble below 80 rubles. coupled with the dollar could lead to the phasing out of anti-crisis measures, such as requiring exporters to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings and restricting capital movements. Therefore, as we approach this border, additional positive news will be needed, as well as the understanding that the comfortable conditions for the ruble created by the authorities will be gradually reduced as the situation on the financial market normalizes.

Yegor Zhilnikov

Yegor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

Most likely, we will be able to see the weakening of the Central Bank for trading in the foreign exchange market

We believe that in March the trade balance increased to $ 32 billion due to a sharp decline in imports to Russia due to previously imposed sanctions and high export sales. As a result, insufficient demand from importers has allowed the dollar-ruble pair to actively dump accumulated overbought over the past two weeks. In April, we expect this situation to continue: imports will remain under pressure, and exports may decline slightly amid declining demand for domestic raw materials, as well as the seasonality factor. Accordingly, the average dollar exchange rate next month may fall in the range of 75-80 rubles. Most likely, we will be able to see the weakening of the Central Bank for trading in the foreign exchange market (reduction of the commission for the purchase of the dollar, etc.) to avoid excessive strengthening of the national currency. Thus, the regulator has already recommended that banks set exchange rates for importing companies, the maximum deviation of which should not exceed 2 rubles. from the stock market. Repetition of the scenario with a dollar exchange rate above 100 rubles. looks unlikely.

Oleg Kochetkov

Oleg Kochetkov,
head of the foreign exchange operations department

The skew in favor of currency sellers has not yet been resolved

The exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble continues to cling to the level of support in the region of 80-83 rubles. For the fourth day in a row, he fails to establish himself at new lows, but the balance of power remains distributed in favor of currency sellers. The skew in favor of currency sellers has not yet been resolved – the ruble may continue to strengthen further. If the exchange rate exceeds 80 rubles / $, we will not be surprised if it moves to the range of 70-80 rubles / $.

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