Mobile services are rising sharply, and for a lot of money consumers will receive even less of these services, experts in the field of telecommunications technology predict. And this is not the only bad news. But there is a good one: “Man adapts to everything.”
As you know, the government is also setting up business and citizens for difficult times: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia recently recommended that mobile operators abandon unlimited tariffs and reduce the included Internet traffic in package offers.
However, according to Telecomdaily analyst Ilya Shatilin, the mini-digital recommendation reflects a trend that emerged long before the current crisis: “Operators began to abandon unlimited tariffs late last year, in October-November.”
The reason – in the growth of traffic, which did not have time to expand networks. The fourth-generation networks have reached the limit of their capabilities, the expert explains: “On the available frequencies with the number of sites for base stations, it was pointless to further compact the networks. And we do not have 5G networks and will not in the near future.”
“If in the autumn” unlimited “left the mass tariff plans available to each subscriber, and remained on expensive offers, – continues Shatilin, – now these expensive unlimited tariffs are closed. The situation has sharply deteriorated as a result of the withdrawal from the Russian market of Western manufacturers of telecommunications equipment.
“Even the fourth generation of networks has virtually nothing to expand,” said the expert. “It is clear that we have Huawei (a Chinese company, one of the world leaders in telecommunications.” Ericsson, for example, you can’t “plug Huawei in there to expand it a bit.”
Leontiy Bukstein, editor-in-chief of the Mobile Telecommunications Internet portal, sees the same situation: “Ericsson and Nokia have left Russia. Switching to Huawei is practically impossible technically within a reasonable time. What do we have? so on. It’s very dangerous for communication. Networks will wear out. We need to understand the situation: we are besieged on all sides, unfortunately, and beaten in the most vulnerable places. “
Full-scale restructuring of the Russian telecommunications sector, with the change of vendors and equipment suppliers, is a pleasure, to put it mildly, not cheap. “I can’t even imagine how huge the cost and time would be if you switch to another vendor’s equipment,” says Bukstein. “It’s a terrible thing. It’s almost unrealistic.”
As for the prospects of import substitution, they are, to put it mildly, even more vague. “In Russia today, there are no microprocessors, chips, on which you can build those operator-class solutions that can replace the solutions of global vendors,” – says partner IKS-Consulting Tatiana Tolmacheva.
A complete replacement of foreign suppliers of telecommunications equipment would require a huge amount of resources and time. The expert cited the example of Taiwan, which decided to develop microelectronics at the time: “It took him 40-50 years.”
Leontiy Bukshtein very much hopes that “the situation will somehow settle down”, that the former vendors are not gone forever. However, there is a plan “B”. The expert reminded of the government’s recent decision on parallel imports, which allows the import of goods into the country without the permission of trademark owners: “Maybe this will be the way out.”
In any case, users will see a rise in tariffs for mobile services. “I guess they may grow by 20-30 percent in the near future,” predicts Ilya Shatilin. And these may be more flowers. “We have not yet fully felt the impact of sanctions related to the restriction of technology imports to Russia,” said Tatiana Tolmacheva.
How should ordinary citizens prepare for a new difficult chapter in the history of Russian telecommunications? Experts are also unanimous in this regard. “I would advise ordinary people to just get used to it,” says Ilya Shatilov. died. Learn to save. “
“If we watch a little less video in the subway, then I think, as sung to a children’s song, we will survive this trouble,” – says Leontiy Bukstein. “A person adapts to everything,” echoes Tatiana Tolmacheva. “Both raising tariffs for communication services and changing habits of using communication services are not the worst things in life.”
Experts predict the decline of unlimited mobile Internet in Russia: video
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