OPEC + and IEA did not agree on barrels – Economy – Kommersant

The OPEC + Technical Committee has abandoned the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its assessment of OPEC + oil production since February and replaced it with Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie. The reason in the cartel is called the understatement of the IEA production data, focused on the growth of supply from exporters.

Prior to the abandonment of the IEA, OPEC + experts estimated that oil production in the oil alliance in February was 1.05 million barrels per day (bpd) less than agreed, the execution of the deal was estimated at 136%. After replacing the data, the level decreased by 4% to 132%: production was only 936 thousand. b / s less than the plan, and the difference in calculations was 117 thousand. b / s. That is, according to new data, OPEC + believes that the IEA underestimated oil production. According to IEA data, in February the OPEC countries that participated in the OPEC + alliance produced 24.128 million bpd, and according to the new estimate – 24.166 million bpd. It turns out that the alliance countries gained 642 thousand. b / s less than the quota (execution of the transaction – 134%), not 680 thousand b / s, as calculated with IEA data.

OPEC +’s refusal to obtain IEA data was the result of mutual mistrust, which has intensified amid the ongoing energy crisis. On March 18, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol noted that the monthly increase in oil production in OPEC + by 400 thousand. b / s is not strong enough, as the IEA expects to reduce the supply of oil from Russia by a significant 2.5 million b / s. According to the IEA, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have reserve capacities of 2 million and 1.1 million bpd, respectively, which can close the deficit. On March 28, UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Suheil al-Mazrui, in contrast to the IEA, said that oil supplies from Russia could not be replaced.

Another problem in the relationship between exporters and importers was the climate agenda.

Back in June 2021, the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, Prince Abdel Aziz bin Salman, questioned the IEA’s plan to achieve zero carbon emissions in the energy sector by 2050. In mid-March 2022, Suheil al-Mazrui attributed the oil shortage to the fact that Western countries sought to exclude fossil fuels from the world’s energy balance and called for an end to investment in the industry. In this sense, the IEA is seen by OPEC + as an instrument of political pressure from importers.

In general, market estimates are unlikely to differ significantly after the rejection of IEA data, as OPEC + continues to use data from Argus, IHS-CERA, EIA, PIW and Platt’s, which are included in the “secondary data”. Today, the OPEC + Monitoring Committee recommended that the alliance members increase oil production by 432,000. b / c in May, which indicates the continued commitment of exporters to the pre-crisis strategy of the alliance.

Georgy Smirnov


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