Peace in Ukraine is being postponed again: optimism “does not share” even Medinsky

Why the Kremlin is looking through its fingers at the double game of Arahamiya

The world in Ukraine is looming again somewhere on the horizon – and this horizon itself is also looming somewhere. According to a well-known joke, the horizon is an imaginary point in space. You try to get close to her, but she runs away from you. You increase your pace – and she also increases her pace. This, perhaps, says everything about the Russian-Ukrainian talks. Although no, not all. The head of the Moscow delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, spoke in detail about the course of these talks in his telegram channel. Here is his key thesis: “Regarding the readiness of the draft agreement for the summit. Unfortunately, I do not share the optimism of D. Arahamiya (one of the main Ukrainian negotiators – “MK”). Moreover, Ukraine’s diplomatic and military “experts” lag far behind in confirming the text of the agreement, even those agreements that have already been reached at the political level. “

So I want to write: what I needed to prove. But I will refrain from fulfilling this “wish” of mine. After all, the situation with the Russian-Ukrainian negotiation process is much more complicated and subtle than it seems at first glance. At the beginning of last week, Vladimir Medinsky caused serious dissatisfaction of the Russian patriotic public, making, as it seemed to her, “overly optimistic” statements following the meeting with the delegation of official Kiev in Istanbul.

I will contribute my belated five kopecks to the discussion. The idea that Medinsky is playing his own game, different from the Kremlin’s general line, is absurd. I have known this presidential aide for a long time and I can attest that he is a 100% team player. Vladimir Medinsky’s statements in Istanbul are an integral part of Putin’s overall strategy and Putin’s overall game.

What was and is the specific political goal of this part of the presidential plan? This is a more “strong nut”. But let’s try to split it anyway. Twenty years ago, I got hooked on a terribly contagious and time-consuming computer toy called Civilization. I explain to those who have passed this contagion: you are building your own civilization – building cities, making scientific discoveries, developing (or not developing) agriculture and industry, starting wars and conducting diplomatic negotiations. After giving up work and personal life for a few weeks, I finally managed to get off this toy. But the way in which “top-level diplomacy” is conducted in it is still very fresh in my memory.

If the forces of the enemy civilization are running out, then its leader behaves flatteringly and makes eloquent declarations about the value of peace and humanism. If the enemy civilization, on the contrary, feels confident, then its leader shows pressure and aggression. And if the balance of power is not yet clear, then a competing civilization in every way pulls time. Now in our reality this third variant from “reality” of that computer game which I once loved is realized. Kiev leaders understand that the APU is by definition weaker than the Russian army. Pay attention, for example, to the lack of triumphalism in Ukraine in which the attack of its helicopters on the oil depot in Belgorod was met. But at the same time, the main groups of the APU have not yet been defeated. Hence this emphasized “slowness” of Ukrainian “experts” mentioned by Vladimir Medinsky.

The Kremlin is also well aware that the outcome of the struggle in Ukraine will be decided primarily on the battlefield. And so the fact that diplomatic talks with official Kiev are now neither shaky nor faltering, he is completely satisfied. In Moscow, it is clear that the negotiators on the other side are chemicalizing and perverting, trying to “sell” to Moscow “a doll made of shredded paper.” But the Medinsky-Arahamia dialogue is now convenient for Putin for three reasons. It allows you to keep open channels of communication with the official Kiev authorities. It allows you to constantly test the position of the opposite side. Finally, it allows the Kremlin to demonstrate its commitment to reaching a peace agreement as soon as possible and to influence Russian public opinion in the right direction.

Did the main offices in Moscow really not realize what kind of reaction many in Russia will provoke optimistic statements by Vladimir Medinsky after the talks in Istanbul? Drop it, it doesn’t happen. In such events, the chief negotiator clearly follows the instructions of his superiors in advance. And the fact that these instructions sometimes require him to “cause fire (in this case – the fire of public criticism) on himself” – these are the rules of participation in the political game. As in chess, the only piece that cannot be sacrificed and set on fire is the “king”. Everyone else must be ready to “suffer for the good of the state”, especially since, unlike chess, the “king” (read the president) has already sacrificed a lot of his political resources and is ready to continue to behave in the same spirit and beyond.

Let’s sum up. In cinema, there is such a term as “preview”. Accordingly, what is currently under the leadership of Vladimir Medinsky is a kind of “pre-negotiations.” “D. Arahamiya said yesterday,” Russia accepts the Ukrainian position with the exception of Crimea. ” I object… We understand: D. Arahamiya addresses his audience. And if he calls all this the Ukrainian position, then, well, we do not regret it. ” Why “not sorry”? Because, probably, from the Kremlin’s point of view, the time has not yet come for a really serious conversation with official Kiev.

Published in the newspaper “Moscow Komsomolets” №28756 dated April 4, 2022

Newspaper headline:
Peace in Ukraine is being postponed again

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