– Sergei, the ruble has strengthened – what is the reason for this and for how long?
– Of course, the strengthening of the ruble is good. This happened for several reasons. First, of course, there is talk that Russia is going to accept payment for gas in rubles, and secondly – against the background of these large-scale sanctions by Western countries and companies, our foreign trade balance is shifting towards a surplus. That is, now we sell more for export than we import.
“Is it because no one sells us anything anymore?”
– Naturally, this is due to the refusal to supply us with goods from Europe and the United States. Here are the two main reasons for the appreciation of the ruble. However, we need to wait for Europe’s official position on gas, and then talk about something concrete.
– Yes, is there an option that the EU will abandon Russian gas altogether?
– Maybe they will still agree to the rubles, then there will be one story. If they refuse altogether, then it is probably premature to be seduced by such a strengthening of the course. So far, there is still a certain gap for further strengthening.
– But it is unlikely that our native wood will return to what it was? In any case, this is probably no longer possible?
– Unlikely scenario. Probably 85-87… On market speculation… Although there are not many speculators left. In principle, taking into account all the sanctions imposed and the whole situation, I think we have come close to the lower limit of the course.
– Is the “black market” of currency able to somehow affect the exchange rate?
– No, he has no influence on the auction. And I would, of course, not advise citizens to carry out any operations on the “black market”.
“Too many risks.” First, it is illegal and there is a certain responsibility for it. From 70 to 100% of the turnover that you change can simply be taken away in favor of the state. And you can run into scammers. So it’s pretty unsafe. And they are able to slip in counterfeit currency, and in general take everything and run away.
– And if it happens that the state in principle will stop buying currency from citizens? And sell too?
“I don’t think that can happen.” They will always buy foreign currency, last week there was information that the United States stopped shipping cash dollars to the Russian market. That is, we have a shortage of cash currency
– Can they recognize all the dollars that are shipped to Russia as invalid, they are also talking about that?
– Yes, there is such a possibility. They can go for anything. A striking example: the blocking of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation.
– But the Russians went abroad with dollar cash with Russian numbers, and it can be anywhere and from anyone, for what the rest suffer?
– I think if they want, they will find a way to impose new sanctions. But I don’t see the point in banning dollars that have already been imported. There will simply be no new deliveries, and what there is is not eternal.
– That is, most likely, there will be a shortage of cash currency and significant restrictions on its sale?
– Of course, not enough for everyone.
– As for gold, citizens were advised to buy it as a replacement for dollars recently, and now it is getting cheaper. It turns out, cheated?
– The price of gold on the world market and plus the undervalued ruble, today the price of gold is unfavorable for purchases, you need to focus on the amount on the world market. Above $ 1,900 per troy ounce (a unit of weight used by banks and jewelers) is a lot, because now there are so-called commodity and energy crises. Global players reflect this in the price of gold. Similarly, central banks doubt that they will be able to overcome inflation, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve has begun to raise rates. If the Americans manage to somehow overcome inflation with more aggressive methods, it will affect the value of gold. Comfortable, in my opinion, sections where we can look closely at buying gold on the world market is below 1800 per troy ounce.
– Then what to invest in, what to keep their remaining capital, who still has it?
– With rubles, I think there will be no problems, at least, they will print, although it is unlikely to comfort investors. Option one – a deposit of 20%, see which banks give it.
– And if inflation is higher?
– Well, there’s nothing you can do here, she’s more in fact. Basically now, in addition to the ruble exchange rate, if you look at the cost of imported equipment – it’s price tags multiplied by 2. There is laid not only the value of the dollar, but also what is happening in the country as a whole. I learned the price of a washing machine yesterday, everything just needs to be multiplied by two. This shows that sellers do not know what will happen next. This is where the price of short deliveries lies. Until sellers understand what will happen next, it is better not to buy anything without extreme necessity. I think sooner or later everything will settle down.
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