What will be the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro in April 2022: whether to expect a fall after a sharp rise

Experts told whether to expect further strengthening of the ruble and whether to sell dollars in April.

Against the background of sanctions, the dollar showed record growth in late February and first half of March, the dollar soared from 75 to 120 rubles and the euro from 90 to 127. However, after the Central Bank took measures to stabilize the economy, the ruble slowed and by March 29 the dollar fell to the mark of 93 rubles.

Experts are cautious in their forecasts for April and the coming months, but several analysts’ forecasts are already known.

What affects the dollar and the euro

Economists identify several common factors that affect the ruble and currency: events in politics and the world economy; the domestic situation in the country, stability, economic recovery and GDP growth; financial instruments used by central banks to support; demand for products and raw materials; trust of potential investors and the population, writes “Rambler”.

However, in 2022, the dollar rose sharply immediately after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine on February 24. Further, the sanctions imposed on Russia only intensified the fall of the ruble and the rise of the dollar.

To stabilize the situation, the Central Bank sharply raised the discount rate to 20%, removing money from the market, and the president imposed strict currency restrictions, which artificially reduced the demand for foreign currency. In addition, exporters were instructed to sell 80% of their foreign exchange earnings. All these measures allowed to quickly stabilize the ruble against major world currencies. For some time, the national currency and the decision to convert trade in Russian gas into rubles strengthened. According to experts, these measures are unlikely to allow the dollar to reach new heights in April 2022, but the main role will be played by the political situation and the reaction of other countries.

Forecasts for April

According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the value of the dollar against the ruble is expected to increase in April. In the first half of April 2022, the exchange rate will be 98 rubles 01 kopecks. By the end of the month, the dollar exchange rate will rise by 3.70 to 100.35 (one hundred and thirty-five kopecks). Thus, the projected average dollar exchange rate for the second month of spring will be 98.66 rubles.

Some analysts have tried to predict the dollar exchange rate in 2022 by analogy with 2014, when a referendum was held on the inclusion of Crimea and Sevastopol in Russia. Then the dollar jumped from 35 rubles in February to 68 rubles by the end of 2014.

Economists have projected the Crimean scenario on the situation in 2022. This year, the ruble and the dollar were also affected by the political situation. The “special operation” started on February 24, and if we draw an analogy with the Crimean history, then by the end of 2022 we should expect 190 rubles per dollar, based on the Central Bank’s February 24 exchange rate – 85 rubles.

However, in 2014 the situation was less severe – the West did not block the reserves of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, did not impose currency restrictions and did not have such an unprecedented scale of sanctions.

That’s why I would use at least a triple “amplifier” with a double factor. It is possible that, other things being equal, if the geopolitical situation does not get significantly worse or even start to improve, by the end of 2022 we will be able to freely buy cash in the bank in the range of 190 to 255 rubles per dollar, “said international financial consultant Isaac Becker in an interview with Forbes.ru.

By April, the dollar is unlikely to reach maximum values, but given this forecast to get rid of the US currency in the second month of spring is unlikely to be appropriate. Some analysts believe that the US currency may still repeat the March records.

“Unfortunately, it is impossible to calculate geopolitical risks. The recent decision to sell Russian gas for rubles to unfriendly countries is a controversial factor in terms of strengthening the ruble, “said Andrei Vernikov, head of the investment analysis department at Univer Capital.

According to his forecasts, the dollar exchange rate in April will be in a wide range from 90 to 120 rubles per dollar, and for the euro will give from 95 to 125 rubles, writes sport24.ru.

Andrei Loboda, an economist and director of external relations at BitRiver, sees a more optimistic and stable dollar and euro exchange rate in April. He is sure that the ruble has already gone through the worst times. “Today, the positive signals far outweigh the negatives we saw in late February. It is already clear that inflation by the end of the year, according to the Central Bank, will not exceed 20%, sections of the stock and foreign exchange markets on the Moscow Stock Exchange are coming to life. The high key rate also restored the trust and interest of citizens in bank deposits, “said the specialist in an interview with MK.

According to Loboda, by mid-April the dollar will fall to 90 rubles, and the euro will be in the range of 95-99 rubles.

It will be recalled that it was previously reported that the Central Bank imposed restrictions on the handling of foreign currency until September 9, 2022.

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