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Who will win the Oscar in 2022 – according to statistics – Movies and TV series on DTF

Annual forecast from an analyst who predicts victories with the help of mathematics.

Once a year, analyst Ben Zozmer publishes his Oscar predictions for The Hollywood Reporter. Unlike other analysts, Ben uses mathematical formulas and calculations – in most cases he is right.

For his method of calculation, the analyst has written a program that calculates the chance of winning the film based on its rating and all the awards received before the Oscars. Statistics on past award ceremonies help to correct the probability.

Best Picture – “The Power of the Dog”

The main favorite of the season is the neo-western “The Power of the Dog” starring Benedict Cumberbatch. The film received as many as 12 Oscar nominations – more than any other contender. Victories at BAFTA, Critics Choice and other important awards point to the probable triumph of “Dog Power”.

The analyst does not rule out that the drama “CODA: The Child of Deaf Parents” may still win – the probability of this is 14.5%. So there is no guarantee that the best film will be “The Power of the Dog”.

Best Director – Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)

In the category of “Best Director”, Jane Campion will surely win – the other directors have almost no chance. The champion has already received a corresponding award at the ceremony of the Guild of Directors of the United States, so the statistics speak for themselves.

Ben Zozmer noted that in this case, Campion will be the third woman director to receive an award in this category.

Best Actor – Will Smith (“King Richard”)

According to Zozner’s calculations, there will be no surprises in the “Best Actor” category – Will Smith received statuettes during the season. He has already won awards at the Actors Guild, BAFTA, Golden Globe and Critics Choice. Benedict Cumberbatch came in second, but his chances of winning were almost 17 times lower than Smith’s.

Best Actress – Jessica Chastain (Tammy Faye’s Eyes)

The most interesting nomination in the statistics – “Best Actress”. Ben Zozner believes that Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, Kristen Stewart and Olivia Coleman have about the same chances of winning, despite the results of the calculations. Therefore, Chastain’s victory cannot be considered guaranteed.

Best Supporting Actor – Troy Kotsur (“CODA: The Child of Deaf Parents”)

Cody-Smith McPhee, who starred in The Power of the Dog, was originally considered a favorite. But during the season, the most awards went to Troy Kotsur, a deaf-mute actor from “CODA”. If McPhee still wins, he will be the youngest actor to receive an award in this category.

Best Supporting Actress – Ariana DeBoss (“West Side Story”)

There is no intrigue in this category – the “Oscar” is probably in the pocket of actress Ariana DeBoss, who played Anita in “West Side Story”. In 1962, Rita Moreno received a statuette for the same role. The chances of other actresses are so insignificant that the analyst chose not to even guess whether DeBoss will lose in this category.

Best Original Screenplay – Belfast

Ben Zozmer advised to pay attention to “Best Original Screenplay”. In his opinion, there is no definite favorite in this category – Belfast, Licorice Pizza and Don’t Look Up can also win. At the same time, according to statistics, Kenneth Branagh’s autobiographical Belfast has the best chance.

Best Adapted Scenario – “CODA: The Child of Deaf Parents”

According to Zozmer’s calculations, CODA has the best chances in this nomination, as he received awards in the Guild of Screenwriters and BAFTA. But the statuette may also go to “Dog Power”: the film Champion won the award for “Best Adapted Screenplay” on Critics Choice. The analyst believes that the chances between them are really equal.

Best Feature Cartoon – Encanto

The main competitors in this category are Encanto from Disney Studios and Mitchell vs. Machines from the creators of Spider-Man: Across Universes. Encanto has a better chance of winning, but the analyst does not rule out that academics may choose Mitchell.

Best Cinematography – Dune

Statistics highlight Dune as the favorite in the Best Cinematography category. Greig Fraser, the cinematographer of the film, has already received an award from the American Society of Cinematographers. But the “Power of the Dog” also has certain chances: it all depends on the preferences of academics.

Best soundtrack – “Dune”

Ben Zozmer believes that the statuette for the best soundtrack will surely be awarded to Hans Zimmer – for him it will be only the second victory at the Oscars after “The Lion King” in 1995. The composer has almost no serious competitors: only “Dog’s Power” remains a more or less realistic option.

The Oscar 2022 ceremony will take place on the night of March 27-28.

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